Farage’s by-election gamble spells trouble for Reform. But the broader anger at failing political institutions will not dissipate.

Much of what makes British party politics so great to follow is that it’s like a soap opera. We like to follow the characters and their individualities. We cheer or boo them, depending on whether we see them as the goodies or the baddies. We enjoy the storylines, watching it all unfold through headline and screen. And every now and then there’s a really great episode – the Portillo moment, Ed Miliband’s bacon sandwich, Sunak resigning in the rain.

Last Tuesday, Nigel Farage enthralled us all with his own fantastic plot twist; the Reform leader formally resigned as MP for Clacton, calling on a by-election. The move comes after a parliamentary inquiry into an undeclared £5m gift to Reform UK from cryptocurrency investor Christopher Harborne, that had garnered significant press attention and subsequent public disgust. Farage has pitched this as an establishment stitch-up to weaken a soaring Reform, billing his electoral gamble “a people versus the establishment by-election”. It’s a move that’s straight out of the Harry Perkins playbook, although perhaps less swashbuckling and, sadly for British democratic politics, not fiction.

There was a genuine sense of ire in Farage’s announcement of the by-election, fighting on personal terms by bringing up the Times’ revelation of his daughter’s tenancy. Interviews on LBC, Sky, ITV and BBC have shown him seriously wound up on the issue, which has repeatedly cropped up in interviews as a potential chink in his armour. He has maintained that the “unconditional gift” of £5m was likely a reward for his Brexit campaign success, but that he intends to use it on personal security for the rest of his life. Has he spent any of it yet? “It’s literally none of your business”.

Perhaps, the crux of Farage’s fury is that he knows that the story makes him look unelectable. He is painted as both corrupt and – as a self-proclaimed man of the people – a hypocrite. One Farage-supporting caller on LBC said he felt frustrated that Farage had refused to answer clearly on why he had been given the £5m, especially considering that Farage was deviating from the “straight-forward answers which he normally gives”. Repeatedly pandering around the whats and whys of an issue does not play in Farage’s favour, particularly as his shtick is being straight-talking. Of course, there’s no real alternative to obfuscation. There are no fair reasons for a prominent public politician receiving and not declaring inordinate sums of money from a crypto-billionaire.

Zooming out slightly, the story plays horribly into Farage’s longer-term PR, too. He leans heavily into a narrative that lauds him as the working man’s white knight rallying against a corrupt political establishment, and the revelation of his own underhand dodgy dealings has severely undermined this story.

And so, calling for a by-election is a move that does make sense; the recent media blitz has led to wavering support for Reform UK, and a democratic victory from a sympathetic Clacton would serve as a welcome reassertion of public favour. Of course, it also has the added bonus of halting the parliamentary standards investigation into Farage’s finances as he is – for the moment – no longer a sitting MP.

In response, the mainstream parties have opted not to entertain Farage’s gamble. Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Greens have declared that they will not run in the by-election. Had they done so, an apathetic Clacton and a split anti-Farage vote would have meant a landslide victory for Reform. Of course, Reform will crow that they have scared off the political establishment.

A political win for the sky blues? Not at all. There are now no politically-serious competitors to split the not-Farage vote, meaning beating Reform could simply be a binary numbers game of ‘Farage – In or Out?’. In the 2024 General Election, Farage won with 46% of the vote, with the next closest – the Conservative Giles Watling – a good 19 points behind him. All major parties together however (Conservatives, Labour, Green, Liberal Democrats) totalled up to just above 52%, just enough to supersede Reform if unsplit behind a single candidate. Of course in this view, there are plenty of independent, unserious and novelty candidates to split the not-Farage vote, with thirty-three others running in the Clacton by-election. If one can be singled out and rallied behind, the not-Farage vote could bring in a new MP for Clacton.

This would likely be Count Binface, a grown man playing dress-up as a warrior-cum-bin from outer space, now Reform’s main political opposition. The unseriousness of his character could cause trouble for Farage, as Count Binface i) cannot reasonably be attacked as the establishment, and ii) may steal some of the apathetic vote. If the £5m story has duly stained Farage as corrupt and not ‘of the people’, the anti-establishment vote of political frustration that once rallied behind Reform may manifest itself in the form of a space-warrior bin. Both the not-Farage and the former ‘apathetic’ for-Farage voting blocs have a shared interest in Count Binface.

To many, the prospect of having a space-fighting bin as a sitting MP is hilarious, particularly if it pushes the divisive Farage out of Parliament. But the left and centre should pause for thought before getting out the champagne. If Farage does lose to a bin, it may be the end of the road for Reform. But the broader anger at failing political institutions will not dissipate.

Pent-up political frustration will be channelled to further extremes, tipping many votes from far-right populist to further-right ethno-nationalist. This would likely favour Restore Britain, a party led by ex-Reform MP Rupert Lowe who fell out with Nigel Farage in 2024 over mutual accusations of misconduct. Restore advocate for mass deportations and the restoration of legally-embedded Christian tradition, among other nationality-oriented policies. They finished third in the Makerfield by-election at seven percent of the vote behind Labour and Reform, and are gaining traction on social media.

Of course, that’s not to say we are anywhere remotely close to a Restore government. That’s also not to say there isn’t a world where it’s Burnham who claims some of Farage’s lost support. In which, he rides out his own media onslaught, heroically saves the country from the out-of-governmental-control cost-of-living crisis in time for the next general election, whilst adhering to Rachel Reeves’ fiscal constraints, and we all live happily ever after.

There is a more plausible case for a Farage win, provided he can pull off a PR masterclass in successfully framing his dodgy dealings as an establishment stitch-up. Clacton is still a Reform hot-bed, after all. If the story does not sway the by-election voters, we can all expect a rejuvenated Reform UK, another tick up for them in the polls, and the crypto baron’s £5m to evaporate into just another forgotten episode.

All views expressed are author’s own

For more opinion pieces, please click here: https://www.liverpoolguildstudentmedia.co.uk/category/opinion/